Look Again to See if There Is There Is an Iraqi Connection
In April, the news that Iraq was mediating between longtime rivals Saudi Arabia and Islamic republic of iran captivated Center East watchers. Iraq's new part as a Saudi-Iran intermediary comes as the Saudis have taken concrete steps in recent years to build a meaningful relationship with their northern neighbor, such as reopening their border final November for the first time since 1990. Yet while the new Saudi-Republic of iraq human relationship is indeed noteworthy, Iraq has simultaneously been forging a regional partnership with ii other Arab states: Arab republic of egypt and Jordan. Indeed, Baghdad hosted a summit in belatedly June attended by Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi and Rex Abdullah Two of Hashemite kingdom of jordan. It was the 4th time leaders of the three countries take met together since March 2019, and the first fourth dimension on Iraqi soil. It was as well the outset visit by an Egyptian president to Republic of iraq in more than thirty years.
At get-go glance, a partnership grouping together Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan appears rather foreign. I commentator, not without reason, called it an alliance composed of the "region'southward odd fellows." Nonetheless, Iraq has historically had important economical relationships with both Egypt and Hashemite kingdom of jordan, and in fact the iii countries — along with North Yemen — came together in a very short-lived partnership chosen the Arab Cooperation Quango (ACC) from 1989 to 1990. Today, like 30 years ago, economic cooperation lies at the eye of the trilateral relationship. Only and so and at present it has also had strategic goals. And in the longer term, the new partnership potentially heralds a far more than ambitious project to bring together not just Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan, but the countries of the Levant more broadly.
Dorsum to the Future
Republic of iraq'southward close economic ties to Egypt and Hashemite kingdom of jordan date to the 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq War. Jordan became Iraq's economic lifeline at that time, serving as a conduit for imports and oil exports through the port of Aqaba. Jordan also received most of its own oil, highly subsidized, from Iraq. Male monarch Hussein was Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein's closest marry at the fourth dimension, visiting Baghdad often during the war. Egypt, meanwhile, saw more than one million of its citizens relocate to Iraq during the 1980s to fill jobs made vacant by the mass conscription of Iraqi men into the military — so many that Iraq constituted Arab republic of egypt's largest source of remittances.
Presently afterward the end of the war, the 3 countries, joined by North Republic of yemen, formed the ACC. Each had a political motive to forge the pact. All wanted allies to balance against the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Saudi-led alliance of the six Gulf monarchies created during the war. Saddam owed the Saudis billions of dollars in loans from the war, while Amman and Sana'a had longstanding concerns about Saudi expansionism and interference in their internal diplomacy.
Nevertheless, economic cooperation formed a central colonnade of the formation. The ACC was envisioned every bit a machinery to increase trade among member states, as well as to facilitate labor movements, particularly from Egypt and Jordan to Iraq.
The ACC had barely launched before it savage apart due to Saddam's invasion of State of kuwait in August 1990. But even during the 1990s, while Iraq faced an onerous international sanctions regime, trade between it and Arab republic of egypt and Jordan connected. Iraq continued to be Arab republic of egypt's 2nd biggest export market, under the U.N. Oil-for-Nutrient Programme. Jordan remained dependent on Iraqi oil, which it continued to receive with U.S. acceptance. King Hussein only very reluctantly broke with his long-time friend, Saddam, when Washington agreed to welcome Jordan back as a close ally.
Not surprisingly, therefore, Egypt and Jordan were amidst the first Arab states to build ties to the new Iraq post-obit the 2003 U.S. invasion. In 2005, then-Jordanian Prime Government minister Adnan Badran became the most senior Arab official to visit Iraq since the invasion; three years afterward Abdullah was the first Arab head of country to visit. Arab republic of egypt and Iraq reestablished merchandise ties in 2004. The following twelvemonth Cairo sent an ambassador to Baghdad, although tragically the Egyptian diplomat was assassinated by al-Qaida in Iraq a few weeks after his arrival. The Jordanian embassy in Baghdad was also amidst the first targets of al-Qaida in Iraq.
The development of Iraq's economic relationships with Arab republic of egypt and Hashemite kingdom of jordan was significantly hindered by its sectarian ceremonious war of the 2000s and the rise of the Islamic State group in the 2010s. But in recent years, the three countries take again taken meaningful steps to rebuild economic ties. In 2017, Egypt began to receive oil from Republic of iraq, subsequently its oil supply was cut off by Saudi Arabia. Jordan began to take delivery of Iraqi oil in 2019. Since at least 2017, the three countries have anticipated undertaking a major joint energy project, linking Iraq'south oilfields in Basra to Aqaba via pipeline, which could be farther extended to Arab republic of egypt. Meanwhile, Iraq has also looked to Egyptian and Jordanian companies for the massive reconstruction projects it will demand to undertake to recover from four decades of wars. There are also plans to connect Iraq to Jordan and Egypt's electricity grids to reduce its dependence on electricity exported from Islamic republic of iran.
Nevertheless, all three countries are cash-strapped — a major challenge for their ambitions. At the cease of last year, Egypt and Iraq agreed, in effect, to trade Iraqi oil for Egyptian reconstruction help. In the longer run, the three countries will need to look to outside parties for financing.
While Iraq is heading to elections this fall, almost of its leaders appear enthusiastic virtually the partnership'south economic hope. Discussions for the project were already underway during the premiership of Haider al-Abadi. After, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, on his first trip abroad as prime government minister in March 2019, attended the first trilateral summit in Cairo. President Barham Salih met with el-Sissi and Abdullah in New York, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, in September 2019. Current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi headlined Iraqi attendance at the tertiary summit in Amman in Baronial 2020.
A New Levant?
Economic cooperation is the driving force behind the formation, just as in 1989, each of the three has a political incentive to come together. Iraq wants to diversify its regional relationships across Iran — though it is of import to emphasize that Baghdad does not aim to develop its relations with its Arab neighbors at the expense of its relationship with Tehran. Iraq wants friendly relations with both. The Iranians, for their function, might actually look favorably on Iraqi economical cooperation with Egypt and Hashemite kingdom of jordan – if, down the line, they will likewise be able to do good economically. Past contrast, if Arab republic of egypt and Jordan, and for that matter the U.s., seek to employ the formation as a means to isolate Iran, Tehran will undoubtedly sow problems. The extent to which Islamic republic of iran may be allowed to benefit will ultimately depend on the outcome of its ongoing negotiations with the Biden assistants.
Egypt and Hashemite kingdom of jordan, meanwhile, want to reduce their dependence on Saudi Arabia. For Hashemite kingdom of jordan, this is especially disquisitional following reports of Saudi involvement in a recent conspiracy to destabilize the country and supervene upon Rex Abdullah with former Crown Prince Hamza. The new germination would give Jordan, also equally Arab republic of egypt and Iraq, greater leverage vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries.
But the most pregnant, if still implicit, political objective may be to provide a means in the longer term to rehabilitate Syria. Leaders from the three countries have begun to call their germination "the new Levant," or "al-Sham al-Jadid" in Arabic. Sham is a reference to the city of Damascus, and more broadly to Syrian arab republic and the Levant. By definition, there cannot be a new "Sham" without Syrian arab republic. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Egypt, Republic of iraq, and Jordan have allow it be known that partnership in their new bloc will be open to other countries in the region, without specifying which. In fact, this aspect of the new formation too has roots in the brusk-lived ACC experiment. ACC member states did non view their partnership as exclusive, and there was some anticipation that Syrian arab republic and Lebanon might have joined at some signal.
The Egypt-Republic of iraq-Jordan germination is in many means the resurrection of the onetime ACC, which was disrupted for 30 years by instability and war in Iraq. The U.S. has welcomed and should continue to support this growing partnership of iii of its close partners in the region. In the longer run, if Syria and Lebanese republic are invited to bring together, U.S. support would be complicated by the continuation in power of Bashar al-Assad, rightfully seen as a war criminal. Nevertheless, the "new Levant" projection could ultimately serve as a means to undertake the massive reconstruction needed in Syria and to reduce the considerable economic misery of the people there and in Lebanon.
After a decade of state of war in Syrian arab republic, and four decades of war in Republic of iraq, there has never been greater demand for a new vision for the region. The nucleus of a new kickoff might just lie in an economical partnership kickoff launched more than than thirty years ago.
Source: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/07/02/egypt-iraq-and-jordan-a-new-partnership-30-years-in-the-making/
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